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This could be the category that keeps Robert Altman awake at night. More than 25 years after he guided ''Nashville'''s Lily Tomlin and Ronee Blakley to competing nominations, the filmmaker's latest is likely to spawn two candidates -- HELEN MIRREN and two-time winner MAGGIE SMITH -- from ''Gosford Park.'' Both actresses earned Golden Globe nods, so look for the battle between upstairs and downstairs to continue.

Two younger performers appear to be locks as well. At only 26, KATE WINSLET, who plays the young Iris Murdoch in ''Iris,'' stands to earn her third nomination. Meanwhile, 31-year-old JENNIFER CONNELLY could be the category's only first-time nominee, thanks to her affecting turn in ''A Beautiful Mind.''

The final contender is a bit tougher to predict. CAMERON DIAZ earned a Globe nod as Tom Cruise's jealous booty call in ''Vanilla Sky,'' but the movie will probably divide voters as much as it did audiences. ''The Royal Tenenbaums'' kin (and past Oscar winners) ANJELICA HUSTON and GWYNETH PALTROW might be overshadowed by Gene Hackman. ''The Shipping News''' JUDI DENCH, who received a nomination last year in this category for ''Chocolat,'' did better-received lead work in ''Iris.'' That leaves ''My Cousin Vinny'' Oscar winner MARISA TOMEI, whose touching performance as ''In the Bedroom'''s suffering girlfriend could transform her from an Academy Award punchline into a bona fide contender.

For your Consideration
Our affection for FIONNULA FLANAGAN goes back to ''Rich Man, Poor Man.'' But she outdid herself as the housekeeper in ''The Others.'' Is she there to tidy up or to terrify? And is there anyone in this race she wouldn't spook?

The first three critics' groups to announce their winners propelled two leading ladies to the front of the Best Actress queue. Both the New York and Los Angeles committees named ''In the Bedrooms''' five-time Oscar nominee (and one-time winner), SISSY SPACEK. The National Board of Review, meanwhile, cited ''Monster's Ball'' star HALLE BERRY, who has already won a Golden Globe, a SAG award, and an Emmy (all for her 1999 TV movie, ''Introducing Dorothy Dandridge'') but is gunning for her first Oscar nod.

Three-time Oscar nominee (and supporting-actress victor for 1998's ''Shakespeare in Love'') JUDI DENCH also seems a likely choice for her performance as feisty novelist and Alzheimer's patient Iris Murdoch in ''Iris.'' As for the recently prolific NICOLE KIDMAN, the question was never whether she'd score a nomination, but rather for which film. (Academy rules dictate that unlike directors, actors and actresses may receive only one mention per category.) Strong reviews for her subtle work in ''The Others'' initially indicated that her best chances would stem from that thriller. But a late surge for ''Moulin Rouge'' has now given the musical the edge. A pair of Globe nods for Kidman in the drama and musical/comedy categories only help to muddy the race.

''The Deep End'''s TILDA SWINTON earned a Globe nod as well as honors from Boston film critics, but the performance might be too quiet for the Academy. Likewise, comedic faves AUDREY TAUTOU (''Amélie''), RENEE ZELLWEGER (''Bridget Jones's Diary''), THORA BIRCH (''Ghost World''), and REESE WITHERSPOON (''Legally Blonde'') will all likely suffer because of their films' relative lightness. STOCKARD CHANNING earned an AFI nomination for playing a corporate nightmare in ''The Business of Strangers,'' but voters might ignore her little-seen indie.

The real wild card here is ''Mulholland Drive'' breakout NAOMI WATTS. When her essentially dual performance received some of the best critical notices of the year, her handlers began constructing a supporting-actress campaign on her behalf. But after she earned several runner-up citations and an AFI nod -- all for lead actress -- her push has now been switched to this category. Will it be too late? Judging by her landslide Best Actress victory from the National Society of Film Critics, it doesn't look like it.

For your Consideration
In the movies, acting grief usually means overacting grief. But in the devastating French import ''Under the Sand'' (if you missed it, catch up with it on video), CHARLOTTE RAMPLING brought stunning restraint and perfect pitch to her portrayal of a middle-aged woman shattered by sudden widowhood. This was mesmerizing, unimprovable work by an actress at the height of her gifts.

You can't exactly call them new faces, but in this year's category, veterans are doing such surprising work that they might as well be making their debuts. Heading the list is ''Gandhi'' Oscar winner BEN KINGSLEY, whose violent gangster in ''Sexy Beast'' is a juicy image makeover. JON VOIGHT's unexpectedly resonant turn as Howard Cosell in ''Ali'' could net the actor his fourth nod. After 60-odd movies, New York critics' prizewinner STEVE BUSCEMI might add an Oscar nomination to his résumé for his definitive lonely guy in ''Ghost World.'' And though we won't soon forget JIM BROADBENT's rendition of ''Like a Virgin" in ''Moulin Rouge,'' it's his touching turn as the elderly John Bayley in ''Iris'' that Oscar will notice (he's already been honored by the L.A. critics and the National Board of Review).

IAN McKELLEN could ride a ''Lord of the Rings'' sweep to a nomination -- likewise ED HARRIS for ''A Beautiful Mind,'' though he may be hurt by the nature of his role -- but since the average age of these contenders is already 54, how about some new blood? We like the chances of HAYDEN CHRISTENSEN, the troubled teen of ''Life as a House,'' who, at 20, is the same age Timothy Hutton was when he won an Oscar for ''Ordinary People.'' If not him, there's 29-year-old JUDE LAW, who had a grand time as a literal boy toy in ''A.I.'' Even BEN STILLER, a relative elder at 36, would lower the average with a nod as the tracksuited overachiever of ''The Royal Tenenbaums.'' On the other hand, wouldn't it be fun to see ''Ocean's Eleven'''s CARL REINER enter the winner's circle at 80 with his first nomination?

For your Consideration
When TONY SHALHOUB reteamed with ''Barton Fink'' filmmakers Joel and Ethan Coen for ''The Man Who Wasn't There,'' he nearly pilfered the film. As a fast-talking lawyer, he brings bursts of verbal color to a decidedly black-and-white world.